I’ve Got Numbers

I love facts and statistics. It’s a good thing too because after doing research for this initiative, I have pages and pages of them. I have information on everything from what age drinks the most to where the most alcohol is bought/consumed to accidents involving alcohol.

The thing I love most about these statistics is how easily they are manipulated. We throw statistics around like they mean something. I can give you a study showing that tap water is harmful because of the chemicals and minerals in it. Then, I can give you a study showing that tap water is not harmful and maybe even be beneficial because of the minerals in it. Both reports are valid scientific studies, but they have such different results.

Facts are just as easily manipulated. “The sky is blue” is something we all know. No one will contest that. A statement like “the majority of tasters preferred Pepsi over Coke” is a statement that most would likely accept and cite, misleading though it may be. Remember that a majority is simply more than 50 percent. If 7 people said they liked Pepsi, while only 6 people said they liked Coke, Pepsi has a majority, though it only has one more person that likes it. It may be a true statement, but it’s a little misleading.

Let’s say that 8 people said they prefer Mountain Dew. Now, not only do more people prefer Mountain Dew, Pepsi doesn’t have a true majority anymore. With 21 participants (7+6+8), a soda would need 11 votes for the majority. Pepsi only has 7. But if someone wanted to make Pepsi look better, all they have to do is leave out those numbers for Mountain Dew. They wouldn’t be lying to say that the majority of tasters prefer Pepsi to Coke, but it wouldn’t be the whole truth either.

Anyway, the point is to not take numbers and statements at face value. When faced with an onslaught of numbers, put them into a context. Look under the hood and kick the tires.

Statistics are great to support an argument, but too easily manipulated to be the argument. Statistics should be the corn, not the steak. Make sure the meat of the argument isn’t really just a side dish of statistics.